Is A War Coming Between China and Japan?

If you have watched the news lately you might have seen that China is making a big deal of a bunch of little rocky islands, the Senkaku Islands, which has been contested by the two countries for more then a few years, but now it seems as if things are heating up. And if I was China I'd reconsider the direction they might be taking.


First let me boil down the issue, China starting to have a slow down and can't build as many ghost towns as it was needs an outlet for the peoples anger so it uses the still burning anger over Japan's invasion during WWII. In protests, which China clearly gave the seal of approval for, the mobs attack Japanese businesses doing quite a bit of damage. Now China is sending ships to the Senkaku Islands to "claim" them. 


And before I get to my point here are some news items that you might not have seen since this really isn't on the top of the news at least for most drive-by media outlets (after all Mitt Romney did "attack" 47% of America, they can't be bothered by little things like war), Furious China protests mix old anger over Japanese occupation with modern dispute over islands, Concerns mount as Japan, China island dispute shows no sign of easing, and ‘Down With the U.S. Imperialists!’: Protestors Attack U.S. Ambassador in Beijing. 

So now here is why China might not want an actual war to brake out. Japan wouldn't be the only one with a stake in such a war, you have two other countries that would have a major reason to join Japan's side with big benefits from the communists in charge being beaten. First is Taiwan and its government known as the Republic of China, formed by the nationalists after the Mao's takeover of mainland China would have a major gain from the collapse of the communists and a really good reason to join with Japan if war occurred. They also have a really good reason not to have communist China have any possible staging point right next door.

The second would be South Korea as North Korea is almost completely supported by the communists of China.

And then there is a third nation that would have a stake in this hypothetical war, the US, assuming that Obama losses the election, a president Mitt Romney would more then willing to back this group as well as provide aid and even supplies, even arms possibly. I will not go into the possible strategies here that could be used. There are additional advantages to the US as well as a few other countries, as a new nationalist government wouldn't support many, if any, of the states the communists do now.

This would put China into a real tough spot, adding to that is the fact that China has its own aging population problem but not for the same reason as us, as they have had the one child policy since 1980 aborting for the last thirty years a large future population. While China could gain in a war by putting the people to work, it should be noted that the last war they had with Japan required aid from the US and while China has grown in the last sixty years, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and the US has the technological advantage at the moment.

Also any threat China would make on the monetary front would be moot if a President Romney believed that they would lose the war.

I'm sure of one more thing that someone high up in the military of China has already told the communist leadership of the what would happen if things should go badly for them. Which also makes me believe nothing will happen of this except for state propaganda to keep the people from coming after them as the consequences of a loss would be too risky.


Solomon